While recent research hasproposed various technical approaches to provide some clues as to how an ML model makes individual predictions, they cannot provide users with an ability to inspect a model as a completeentity.

Most recent research hasaddressed thisby focusing onlocal interpretability, which explains a model's individual predictions (e.g., the role of each feature in a patient's diagnosis) [25, 30, 34, 38]. Twospecial cases areS = andS = D, which respectively correspond to the mean prediction f (x ) = E[f(X)] and the full model predictionfD(x) = f(x).

Shapley values underlie one of the most popular model-agnostic methods within explainable artificial intelligence. These values are designed to attribute the difference between a model's prediction and an average baseline to the different features used as input to the model. Being based on solid game-theoretic principles, Shapley values uniquely satisfy several desirable properties, which is why they are increasingly used to explain the predictions of possibly complex and highly non-linear machine learning models. Shapley values are well calibrated to a user's intuition when features are independent, but may lead to undesirable, counterintuitive explanations when the independence assumption is violated. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for computing Shapley values that generalizes recent work that aims to circumvent the independence assumption. By employing Pearl's do-calculus, we show how these `causal' Shapley values can be derived for general causal graphs without sacrificing any of their desirable properties. Moreover, causal Shapley values enable us to separate the contribution of direct and indirect effects. We provide a practical implementation for computing causal Shapley values based on causal chain graphs when only partial information is available and illustrate their utility on a real-world example.

Survivors of childhood cancer need lifelong monitoring for side effects from radiotherapy. However, longitudinal data from routine monitoring is often infrequently and irregularly sampled, and subject to inaccuracies. Due to this, measurements are often studied in isolation, or simple relationships (e.g., linear) are used to impute missing timepoints. In this study, we investigated the potential role of Gaussian Processes (GP) modelling to make population-based and individual predictions, using insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) measurements as a test case. With training data of 23 patients with a median (range) of 4 (1-16) timepoints we identified a trend within the range of literature reported values. In addition, with 8 test cases, individual predictions were made with an average root mean squared error of 31.9 (10.1 - 62.3) ng/ml and 27.4 (0.02 - 66.1) ng/ml for two approaches. GP modelling may overcome limitations of routine longitudinal data and facilitate analysis of late effects of radiotherapy.

The impressive capabilities of deep learning models are often counterbalanced by their inherent opacity, commonly termed the "black box" problem, which impedes their widespread acceptance in high-trust domains. In response, the intersecting disciplines of interpretability and explainability, collectively falling under the Explainable AI (XAI) umbrella, have become focal points of research. Although these terms are frequently used as synonyms, they carry distinct conceptual weights. This document offers a comparative exploration of interpretability and explainability within the deep learning paradigm, carefully outlining their respective definitions, objectives, prevalent methodologies, and inherent difficulties. Through illustrative examinations of the MNIST digit classification task and IMDB sentiment analysis, we substantiate a key argument: interpretability generally pertains to a model's inherent capacity for human comprehension of its operational mechanisms (global understanding), whereas explainability is more commonly associated with post-hoc techniques designed to illuminate the basis for a model's individual predictions or behaviors (local explanations). For example, feature attribution methods can reveal why a specific MNIST image is recognized as a '7', and word-level importance can clarify an IMDB sentiment outcome. However, these local insights do not render the complex underlying model globally transparent. A clear grasp of this differentiation, as demonstrated by these standard datasets, is vital for fostering dependable and sound artificial intelligence.

Model multiplicity refers to the existence of multiple machine learning models that describe the data equally well but may produce different predictions on individual samples. In medicine, these models can admit conflicting predictions for the same patient -- a risk that is poorly understood and insufficiently addressed. In this study, we empirically analyze the extent, drivers, and ramifications of predictive multiplicity across diverse medical tasks and model architectures, and show that even small ensembles can mitigate/eliminate predictive multiplicity in practice. Our analysis reveals that (1) standard validation metrics fail to identify a uniquely optimal model and (2) a substantial amount of predictions hinges on arbitrary choices made during model development. Using multiple models instead of a single model reveals instances where predictions differ across equally plausible models -- highlighting patients that would receive arbitrary diagnoses if any single model were used. In contrast, (3) a small ensemble paired with an abstention strategy can effectively mitigate measurable predictive multiplicity in practice; predictions with high inter-model consensus may thus be amenable to automated classification. While accuracy is not a principled antidote to predictive multiplicity, we find that (4) higher accuracy achieved through increased model capacity reduces predictive multiplicity. Our findings underscore the clinical importance of accounting for model multiplicity and advocate for ensemble-based strategies to improve diagnostic reliability. In cases where models fail to reach sufficient consensus, we recommend deferring decisions to expert review.

Electric vehicles (EV) charging stations are one of the critical infrastructures needed to support the transition to renewable-energy-based mobility, but ensuring their reliability and efficiency requires effective anomaly detection to identify irregularities in charging behavior. However, in such a productive scenario, it is also crucial to determine the underlying cause behind the detected anomalies. To achieve this goal, this study investigates unsupervised anomaly detection techniques for EV charging infrastructure, integrating eXplainable Artificial Intelligence techniques to enhance interpretability and uncover root causes of anomalies. Using real-world sensors and charging session data, this work applies Isolation Forest to detect anomalies and employs the Depth-based Isolation Forest Feature Importance (DIFFI) method to identify the most important features contributing to such anomalies. The efficacy of the proposed approach is evaluated in a real industrial case.

The Lovász hinge is a convex loss function proposed for binary structured classification, in which k related binary predictions jointly evaluated by a submodular function. Despite its prevalence in image segmentation and related tasks, the consistency of the Lovász hinge has remained open. We show that the Lovász hinge is inconsistent with its desired target unless the set function used for evaluation is modular. Leveraging the embedding framework of Finocchiaro et al. (2024), we find the target loss for which the Lovász hinge is consistent. This target, which we call the structured abstain problem, is a variant of selective classification for structured prediction that allows one to abstain on any subset of the k binary predictions. We derive a family of link functions, each of which is simultaneously consistent for all polymatroids, a subset of submodular set functions. We then give sufficient conditions on the polymatroid for the structured abstain problem to be tightly embedded by the Lovász hinge, meaning no target prediction is redundant. We experimentally demonstrate the potential of the structured abstain problem for interpretability in structured classification tasks. Finally, for the multiclass setting, we show that one can combine the binary encoding construction of Ramaswamy et al. (2018) with our link construction to achieve an efficient consistent surrogate for a natural multiclass generalization of the structured abstain problem.

Shapley values underlie one of the most popular model-agnostic methods within explainable artificial intelligence. These values are designed to attribute the difference between a model's prediction and an average baseline to the different features used as input to the model. Being based on solid game-theoretic principles, Shapley values uniquely satisfy several desirable properties, which is why they are increasingly used to explain the predictions of possibly complex and highly non-linear machine learning models. Shapley values are well calibrated to a user's intuition when features are independent, but may lead to undesirable, counterintuitive explanations when the independence assumption is violated. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for computing Shapley values that generalizes recent work that aims to circumvent the independence assumption.

Attribution methods are primarily designed to study the distribution of input component contributions to individual model predictions. However, some research applications require a summary of attribution patterns across the entire dataset to facilitate the interpretability of the scrutinized models. In this paper, we present a new method called Integrated Gradient Correlation (IGC) that relates dataset-wise attributions to a model prediction score and enables region-specific analysis by a direct summation over associated components. We demonstrate our method on scalar predictions with the study of image feature representation in the brain from fMRI neural signals and the estimation of neural population receptive fields (NSD dataset), as well as on categorical predictions with the investigation of handwritten digit recognition (MNIST dataset). The resulting IGC attributions show selective patterns, revealing underlying model strategies coherent with their respective objectives.